مدل پیشرفته توسعه سیاسی برای نفوذ در بازار وسایل نقلیه گاز طبیعی در سوئیس

Introduction of alternative fuels in the passenger car fleet is widely discussed in the light of emission reductions. Worldwide experiences show that the market introduction depends on the actions of many stakeholders, like car industry, fuel companies and consumers. The process demands well-timed actions and investments, whilst economic chances and risks are distributed highly unequally. Policy makers set the framework conditions, although the influence of the height and timing of subsidies, tax reductions and other stimulation policies are not well understood yet. The market introduction of alternative fuel vehicles was studied with the example of natural gas cars in Switzerland. Stakeholder analysis and system dynamics modeling techniques were used to characterize the system. Analyses identify difficulties and chances in the market penetration process of natural gas cars. For example, a critical balance between fueling station upgrade investments and natural gas car sales is needed. Further, it is found that large time delays exist between strategic policy actions and frequently used market penetration indicators (e.g. car sales and infrastructure expansion), limiting the ability of policy makers to assess the performance of their strategy. Referring to elements of the Balanced Scorecard approach, a set of five alternative indicators is proposed to better measure the performance of the implemented strategy.

The market introduction of alternative fuel vehicles has gained worldwide interest over the past decade. Ongoing improvements in fuel efficiency of gasoline and diesel cars have shown unable to totally solve local pollution problems or reduce CO2 emissions far enough. The anticipated scarcity of oil has put extra momentum to the search of alternatives. Though hydrogen fueled cars are widely thought to be the long-term solution, with its large scale market penetration estimated after 2030, several viable short and middle term options exist. One of these options is formed by natural gas vehicles. Modern natural gas vehicles (NGVs) are directly available from car manufacturers. They exhibit very low emissions, in best cases even in compliance with California’s very strict emission standard for super-ultra-low-emission-vehicles, SULEV (Bach et al., 2004). The major advantage of NGV is the reduced CO2 emission by 20–30% at comparable performance, mainly because methane is less carbon-intensive than gasoline. An important add-on is the CO2-neutral operation by using renewable methane (biogas) from wood or organic waste. First biogas production plants in Switzerland show its potential. NGVs are also seen as having a bridge function for the market introduction of fuel cell vehicles: As hydrogen can be efficiently reformed from methane, the NGV refueling infrastructure and its operation would need only modular extensions to enable hydrogen distribution and refueling. Besides, NGVs give customers the chance to get familiar with the concept of gaseous fuels. Most car types are bivalent, i.e. they can drive on compressed natural gas (CNG) and gasoline. This enables operation in regions with less developed refueling infrastructure. In Switzerland, simple conversions of gasoline cars to natural gas cars are not considered as an option since only NGVs from serial production (OEMs) fulfill high technological standards, especially environmental benchmarks. In Switzerland, efforts for the market penetration of NGVs have started recently. The fuel infrastructure is still widely absent, and less than 1000 NGVs are presently operated in Switzerland. However, several stakeholders have demonstrated interest in a substantial market share of NGVs. The gas industry, running their business mainly on distributing gas for households, would like to establish a market share in the transportation sector to increase natural gas sales. The Swiss national and regional governments see NGVs as one option to achieve their ambitious goals to reduce local pollution and the traffic-related CO2 emissions, especially when renewable methane can contribute significantly. The Swiss gas industry recently communicated their ambitious goals of 30,000 NGVs in 2010 and 300,000 NGVs in 2020 (i.e. almost 10% of the Swiss car fleet). Overall, more than 50 million Swiss Francs (≈30 million Euros) will be invested over the coming years to fuel the market introduction of NGVs. Investments include significant subsidies to the approximately first 100 filling facilities for compressed natural gas (CNG). Full investment costs for a normal CNG filling facility range from 350,000 to 500,000 Swiss Francs. The government, in reaction, is working on reduction of fuel tax for natural gas and skipping taxes for renewable methane. A clear introduction strategy is under development, being continuously adapted to new insights from the also emerging international NGV market. So far, the sales of gas cars are focused on both private (individual) users and organizations managing car fleets. Several public transport operators run natural gas buses, strengthening the visibility of the alternative fuel. Efforts in various innovative regions and cities are currently combined within a national framework to foster market development of NGVs. International case studies show that market penetration of NGVs is far from trivial. Success with market introduction e.g. in Argentina contrasts with expensive failures after a promising start, e.g. in Canada and New Zealand. The need to learn from these cases, to prevent repeating similar mistakes, is obvious. However, market introduction of NGVs clearly falls into the category of the so-called chicken-egg problem: fuel station owners’ investment as well as the supply of a broad spectrum of NGV types (models) by car manufacturers depends on market potential and customers’ preferences, whereas customers see sufficient fuel station coverage and availability of sufficient NGV types as necessary preconditions before buying NGVs. Gorman (1998) and others have defined clear dangers in the philosophy of “build the refueling infrastructure and the gas car will come”, comparing them to the disappointment of some car producers with products in the market because of bad sales even within niche markets. Gorman argues that the solution is to have market penetration of vehicles and refueling stations in harmony. In this study (based on Janssen, 2005), ways for a harmonic market introduction of NGVs and its fueling infrastructure in Switzerland is analyzed in several steps. Firstly, we have set the Swiss developments into an international context, by analyzing previous international experiences (see Section 2). Then, we have studied the different roles and interactions of the stakeholders involved (Section 3). Using a system dynamics model (outlined in Section 4), several dynamical properties of the diffusion process were analyzed: The future progress of the diffusion process was estimated, using a scenario approach (Sections 5 and 6). Important non-linear reactions of the diffusion process on stimulation policies were studied (Section 7). Finally, a set of five indicators are proposed that can help to assess the performance of the ongoing market diffusion process (Section 8).

The here presented system study helps to analyze the effectiveness of policy measures for the market penetration of alternative fuel vehicles, by the example of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland. It is based on knowledge from international case studies on NGV market development and on specific stakeholder dialogues undertaken in Switzerland. Simulation results for different scenarios, covering a wide range of assumptions, suggest that the introduction of NGVs into the Swiss market is an ambitious challenge with considerable risk. The difficulty to estimate outcomes of policy measures has been demonstrated. Five main indicators have been proposed to better assess the performance of the strategy, and its related policy measures.