تفکر مدیریتی شهودی؛ استفاده از شبیه سازی ذهنی در زمینه بازاریابی صنعتی

In this paper, we introduce empirical evidence showing how mental simulation was used as a heuristic strategy in an industrial network context. The mental network simulations observed are consistent with the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, according to which intuitive thinking allows managerial experience to be translated into focal network action, without resorting to a “rational” or comparative decision strategy. We identify the main business significance of mental network simulations in terms of their utility to clarify ambiguous or only partially known focal network situations, to develop coherent focal net plans and tactics, and to mentally preview how specific focal net tactics/strategies are likely to play out in reality. In short, mental network simulations were observed as being useful in generating focal net action through cognitively meeting the complex environmental challenges in dynamic focal net interaction between companies.

The deployment of cognitive strategies clearly has a profound influence on business outcomes, although being conditioned by social, organisational, inter-organisational, and other factors. Yet, in terms of themes that have been addressed in management research, managerial cognition has been the poor relation. One of the main reasons for this neglect is that knowledge structures and cognitive processes underpinning managerial judgment are notoriously difficult to research. Nowhere in social science is it clearer that the consciousness of the subject provides both insights and barriers to understanding (Runkel & McGrath, 1972). The relative lack of progress in this field of cognition is also related to much of the research being laboratory based (Löwstedt, 1993), which largely excludes the investigation of domain specific expertise and suggests limited application to actual decision making in organisations (e.g. Klein et al., 1993 and Lipshitz et al., 2001). In addition, there has been a tendency for cognitive research to focus on the heuristic flaws of intuitive thinking, as opposed to the intuitions of experts (Klein, 2004 and Dane and Pratt, 2007). However, in recent research on expert decision making, models have been developed explaining how intuitive cognitive structures can allow for recognition-primed response to match complex environmental challenges (Dreyfus, 1982, Klein, 1988, Klein et al., 1993, Klein, 1999, Lipshitz et al., 2001 and Klein, 2004). In this stream of research, mental simulation has been identified as a central cognitive mechanism that facilitates the translation of managerial experience into judgment and action (Klein and Crandall, 1995, Klein, 1999 and Klein, 2004). In particular, in the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model (Klein, 1988 and Klein, 1997) experienced decision makers have been conjectured to form decisions through a combined use of mental simulation and intuitive thinking, and in more familiar situations through entirely relying on recognition-primed intuitive processes. The main significance of the RPD model stems from its attempt to explain how proficient decision makers can often reach good decisions without analytically comparing the strengths and weakness of various options (cf. satisficing: Simon, 1955). And importantly, the cognitive processes described by the RPD model tend to be preferred to analytical cognitive strategies under conditions of experienced participants, time pressure, ill-defined problems, and in dynamic contexts (Klein, 1999). As the industrial network context often has many of these context characteristics (Axelsson and Easton, 1992, Håkansson and Snehota, 1995 and Ford et al., 2002), it can be argued that mental simulation and recognition-primed cognitive strategies would be prominently featured in this field. Accordingly, when used in this context, we define “mental network simulation”, as the cognitive process of focal net story building or mental manipulation of network images. As the primary utility of knowledge structures for businesses lies in their ability to generate action (Weick, 1990), an improved understanding of mental simulation and recognition-primed cognitive strategies can be seen as particularly relevant in the context of the recent cognitive turn in industrial marketing management research. In this paper we seek to elaborate and to explain in detail how mental simulation, nested in recognition-primed intuitive thinking, is used as a cognitive strategy in the industrial network context. To access real-life domain specific manifestations of industrial marketing decision making and expertise, the research in this paper was conducted in actual organisational field settings. Following an inductive research design, we were fortunate to record a sales meeting, where a manager was thinking through a series of industrial network issues, providing us with an entirely natural, and possibly unique data set. As a result of these recordings we are able to provide new insights into the ways in which mental simulation was deployed as cognitive strategy in focal net decision making. We identify the main business significance of “mental network simulations” in terms of their utility to clarify ambiguous or only partially known focal network situations, to develop coherent focal net plans and tactics, and to mentally preview how specific focal net tactics/strategies are likely to play out in reality. In short, mental network simulations were observed as useful in generating focal net action, by cognitively matching the complex environmental challenges in dynamic focal net interaction between companies. The paper begins by briefly reviewing the limited literature reporting research on managerial cognition in the industrial marketing field that concentrates almost entirely on the content of knowledge structures. We then proceed to assess the history of primarily laboratory based psychological research on decision making where intuitive thought was often seen to fail to meet a decision theory model of rational thinking. In the following three sections we introduce the cognitive paradigm Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM), and in particular the work of Klein (2004), to discuss the role of the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, and introduce the notion of mental simulation as one cognitive process that experts use under particular circumstances. The research method and context are then described. The results of the analyses are then set out and discussed. The paper ends with implications of the findings for both researchers and managers.

Based on our findings we argue that there is a good fit between our observed focal net contemplations and Klein's mental simulation model (1999). The model components were all featured in our data set and the model was found to provide insights regarding the cognitive aspects underpinning focal net interaction. We recognize that in providing just two examples of simulation we cannot claim that this is a universal process even in the situations that Klein argues are conducive to their occurrence. However, in the other recordings there is good evidence to suggest that mental simulations do occur, albeit often in ways that are less easy to describe. Moreover, it is important to emphasise that we are not claiming that mental simulation is the only, or even the most important cognitive process that managers use in making focal net decisions. What we do claim is that this is evidence that is consistent with the RPD general model and so is further support for its usefulness. In line with the general RPD model, we accept that there exists a continuum in focal net decision making that ranges from straightforward intuitively recognizable situations that lead more or less directly to requisite action to the more complex cases where intuiting becomes intertwined with the observed use of mental simulation (see Fig. 1). In addition, in line with the conditions set out in Table 1, where the importance of the decision, the need for resolution of conflict and choice justification and the availability of time will lead to instances of rational-choice type decision making. In our findings we observed mental network simulations being used as a cognitive strategy to generate focal net action, utilizing the manager's past industry experience. We see mental network simulations as being involved in three different roles. Firstly they generate awareness of complex focal net situations. As the formation of focal net situation awareness was often hindered by the partial or incoherent information available, mental network simulations had an important function as a story-building strategy, similarly to what has been described by Pennington and Hastie (1993) and by Klein and Crandall (1995). This allowed the manager to complete gaps in information, and to generate internally coherent focal net explanations. In these processes, recognition-primed cognitions explained by the RPD model were augmented with analogical and metaphoric reasoning e.g. in example 1, Mr. Wong was recognized as purposefully “muddying the water”, based on general cultural insights into Chinese and Western business dealings, general industry knowledge, and past encounters with Mr. Wong. Similarly, in example 2, a coherent narrative of focal net interaction was constructed based on various situational clues, such as Rival's past behaviour, seasonal demand fluctuations, electrical approvals in the US, market potential of the product etc. Secondly, mental simulations had a significant role in the formulation of focal net tactics to achieve desirable focal net outcomes. This is related to the third observed function of mental network simulations, which concerned mentally previewing focal network interaction, before engaging in real life of management network activities. The observed mental simulations generated what can be called “down-hill” narratives (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982), (or “down-hill network narratives” in the network context) that connected the current state of affairs to desired focal net goal states. By a “down-hill network narrative” we are specifically referring to plausible network tactics or strategies that are perceived to have the desired potential of reaching specified network objectives. In other words, while these “down-hill network narratives” were not perceived as a guarantee of success, they were nevertheless seen by the General Manager in question as a plausible way of achieving the desired focal net objectives, i.e. making the most of good and bad situations. This is the opposite of “up-hill network narratives” (cf. Kahneman & Tversky, 1982), which we define as involving unfavourable network events, or obstacles in achieving desirable focal net outcomes. Whenever up-hill narrative scenarios were identified, these routes were abandoned and an alternative course of action was populated. Hence, the end outcome of a mental network simulation was almost invariably a “down-hill network narrative” that had at least the potential to achieve a desired focal net position. For example, in both of our “mental network simulation” examples above, the General Manager found a favourable tactical angle that matched the identified focal net challenges. In the first example, Mr. Wong was identified as a source of unfavourable focal net outcomes, and thus the tactical network narrative constructed focussed on reducing his adverse influence. Similarly, in the second example, various potential causes for unfavourable focal net outcomes were identified, and each of these challenges was met with suitable focal net tactic, effectively generating “down-hill network narratives”.