تکامل و چالش های زنجیره تامین فراورده های لبنی : مدارک و شواهد از سوپر مارکت ها، صنایع و مصرف کنندگان در اتیوپی

In developing countries the demand for products of animal origin is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Using data collected from 200 urban households this study examines the evolution of the dairy market in Ethiopia. In particular, this study suggests that although the Ethiopian dairy market remains extremely thin and volatile, the commercialization of processed dairy products through supermarkets is expanding and is expected to keep doing so in the foreseeable future. Increasing urbanization and corresponding changes in consumer preferences, behaviour and purchasing power are the identified causes for the rise of supermarket-processor dairy chains. This study shows also that emerging dairy chains provide new market opportunities to Ethiopian farmers, but the existence of retail-industrial monopolies and monopsonies jeopardize farmers’ economic benefits to a great extent. The study concludes with some implications for policy and further research.

Population growth, urbanization and income growth are occasioning a massive increase in the demand for food products of animal origin in developing countries (Delgado et al., 1999). In particular, dairy consumption is estimated to grow by an average of 3.8% per year in the sub-Saharan region (Delgado et al., 1999).1 Although Ethiopia has favourable agro-ecological conditions for milk production, especially in the highland regions, per capita milk production is estimated at only 41.6 l per year by Taffesse et al. (2006), and 20 l per year by FAO (FAOSTAT, 2006). Even if these estimates differ considerably, they are clearly below the figures reported for neighbouring Kenya (90–100 l per year; FAOSTAT, 2005). A common justification to the poor performance of the Ethiopian dairy sector is related to the fasting practices of national consumers (Ahmed et al., 2003). Approximately 40% of the Ethiopian population are Orthodox Christians (Ahmed et al., 2003). The calendar of the Orthodox church involves four prolonged fasting periods per year, preceding major Christian festivities, and two fasting days every week (Wednesday and Friday), for a total of 180–250 days of fasting per year. During fasting days Orthodox Christians abstain from consuming products of animal origin, including milk and dairy products. Since milk is highly perishable and produced on a daily basis, fasting-induced fluctuations in consumer demand pose significant problems to the commercialization of dairy products within Ethiopia. Dairy trade in Ethiopia is constrained also by incipient urbanization and widespread poverty, which result in thin national markets and a production system dominated by a myriad of smallholder farmers producing milk mainly for home consumption (Ahmed et al., 2003).2Staal et al. (2006) reports that 78% of the milk produced in Ethiopia is consumed within producing households. While Ahmed et al. (2003) indicates that most milk surplus produced in Ethiopia is sold or bartered through arm-length trade across producers and their neighbours, relatives and friends. Nonetheless, in the last decade new market opportunities have emerged at the margin of such a traditional and enclosed dairy sector. To a large extent these opportunities are driven by the rise of dairy supply chains, linking rural production sites to increasingly profitable markets in Addis Ababa. Emerging dairy chains can be disentangled into downstream operators, such as processors and retailers, and upstream operators such as farmers. The role of downstream operators is to systematically address, if not anticipate, evolutions in consumer preference; whereas the role of upstream agents is to keep up with the increasingly stringent specifications of processors and retailers (Weaver and Kim, 2001). Numerous studies (D’Haese and Van Huylenbroeck, 2005 and Neven et al., 2006; among others) show that supermarkets have recently emerged in many parts of Africa triggering profound changes in food supply chains. According to the World Bank (2007, p. 126), supermarkets emerge in large cities, and then spread to smaller towns. First they target the upper-income consumers, then the middle class and later also the urban poor. Berdegué et al., 2005, Dries et al., 2004 and Weatherspoon and Reardon, 2003, show that supermarkets induce major changes in food processing, promoting the supply of products with extended shelf life and higher hygienic standards. As documented by Dries et al., 2004, Berdegué et al., 2005, Reardon et al., 2005, D’Haese and Van Huylenbroeck, 2005, Trail, 2006, Humphrey, 2007 and Reardon et al., 2007, the rise of supermarkets is associated with the industrialization of food processing practices and is triggered by urbanisation and income growth. The rise of supermarket-processor chains represent a great opportunity to link African smallholder farmers to emerging markets (Staal et al., 2001). However, the rise of supermarket-processor chains pose also relevant challenges to African farmers (World Bank, 2007, p. 156). The expansion of food retail outlets and progress in processing technology tend to concentrate market power in the hands of industrial-retail oligopolies and oligopsonies (see Kaplinsky and Morris, 2001, Weatherspoon and Reardon, 2003 and Eagleton, 2006). It follows that the rise of supermarket-led supply chains is a consolidated global trend associated with both opportunities and concerns. But, are supermarket-processor chains emerging also in Ethiopia? And if yes, what are the key factors driving growth in consumer demand for supermarket outlets and processed food products? To answer these questions we present a detailed analysis of the patterns and determinants of change in the dairy market of Addis Ababa. The analysis is organized as follows. First, we present the data available to this study. Second, we examine the rise of supermarket-processor dairy chains in Ethiopia. Third, we investigate the characteristics of dairy consumers in Addis Ababa and the reasons they give for buying or not buying processed dairy products in supermarkets. Fourth, we identify, estimate and discuss the determinants of supermarket-led dairy industry development. And finally we present conclusions and implications.

The story that emerges from this paper is the story of a quest towards industrialization and market integration. In particular, this paper shows that processing industries and supermarkets still retain a negligible share of the Ethiopian dairy market. However, it also suggests that supermarket-processor dairy chains will grow in size and number in the foreseeable future. The typical Ethiopian household purchasing dairy products in supermarkets is found in wealthy urban neighbourhoods; does not observe religious fasting practices; has at least one fridge; can count on male members for food shopping; includes highly educated women and no more than one kid. In this type of households the quantity of processed dairy products purchased in supermarkets increases along with food expenditures. Furthermore, we found that Ethiopian households accustomed to industrially processed dairy products and supermarkets value products’ hygiene and shops’ cleanliness. While households accustomed to traditional dairy products, kiosks, urban farmers, itinerant traders and wet-markets value outlets’ proximity as well as tasty, highly nutritious and cheap products. Therefore, as urban consumers are expected to grow in number, become wealthier and modernize their life style, supermarket-led dairy industry development is expected to endure in Ethiopia. Like in many other parts of the world, the rise of supermarkets and industrial processors allow for trade expansion and employment creation in Ethiopia, but contribute also to the increasing concentration of market power into retail-industrial oligopolies and oligopsonies. The emergence of private monopoly and monopsony power raises significant risks for both national farmers and consumers. First, the risk of farmers’ exploitation and marginalization through the imposition of increasingly stringent specifications by industrial-retail monopsonists. Second the risk of consumers’ manipulation through concerted marketing strategies by industrial-retail monopolists deserve the attention of policy-makers. In order to minimize risk for consumers and farmers, the evolution of the market needs to be accompanied by appropriate adjustments in policy and governance. In particular, (inter)national policy-makers aiming at poverty and hunger alleviation must make sure that Ethiopian farmers have adequate institutional support. For instance, the participation in efficient marketing cooperatives or associations, and the adoption of pro-poor certification schemes (such as Fair Trade) could significantly help Ethiopian smallholder farmers in dealing with industrial-retail monopsonists, especially if the process of institutional building and strengthening is monitored, evaluated and backed up through sound empirical research.