دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 43351
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

پویایی بلند مدت سیستم های انرژی: مورد ایتالیا

عنوان انگلیسی
Long term dynamics of energy systems: The Italian case
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
43351 2015 11 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 96, July 2015, Pages 266–276

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
سیستم انرژی - تعویض لجستیک - نفوذ در بازار - مدل سازی انرژی - انتقال انرژی
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Energy system; Logistic substitutions; Market penetration; Energy modelling; Energy transitions
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  پویایی بلند مدت سیستم های انرژی: مورد ایتالیا

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861–2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions – such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization – are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model — such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular – although Italy does not have nuclear energy production – according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.