رابطه نفوذ بیمه و رشد اقتصادی : مدارک بین المللی از انجمن ملل آسیای جنوب شرقی

This paper investigates whether there are Granger causal relationships between insurance market penetration, broad money, stock-market capitalization, and economic growth, using panel data for the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) countries for the 1988–2012 period. Using a multivariate framework, we show that all the variables are cointegrated and reveal a network of causal connections, including short-run bidirectional causality between insurance market penetration and economic growth. Recommendations based on this study include establishing a sound regulatory framework for a country's insurance industry, and introducing professional education and certification of insurance personnel to ensure adherence to global best practices and standards. Moreover, opening up a country's domestic insurance market to larger foreign players can ensure a wider choice of cost-effective, quality insurance.Graphical abstractNote 1: GDP is the per capita economic growth rate; BRM is broad money; SMC is stock market capitalization; and INS is insurance market penetration (various measures, as per text: LIP, NIP, or TIP).Note 2: LIP is life insurance penetration; NIP is non-life insurance penetration; and TIP is total insurance (life and non-life) penetration.Note 3: H1A: INS Granger-causes GDP; H1B: GDP Granger-causes INS; H2A: BRM Granger-causes GDP; H2B: GDP Granger-causes BRM; H3A: SMC Granger-causes GDP; H3B: GDP Granger-causes SMC; H4A: INS Granger-causes BRM; H4B: BRM Granger-causes INS; H5A: INS Granger-causes SMC; H5B: SMC Granger-causes INS; H6A: BRM Granger-causes SMC; and H6B: SMC Granger-causes BRM.Note 4: Possible Granger causal relationships between any two variables are tested in the presence of the other two variables.Figure optionsDownload as PowerPoint slide