امتیاز نامعلومی: روش جدید بالقوه برای هشدار به بحران در بازار وام های بین بانکی

A new measure called “implicit rating” is introduced as a potential component of an early warning system. It relies on the aggregation of experts’ knowledge hidden in transactional data of the interbank market of unsecured loans. Banks simultaneously assess each other's creditworthiness which is reflected in partner limits and interest rates. In the Hungarian interbank market the overall trading volume and the average interest rate showed no negative trends before the crisis of 2008; however, the average implicit partner limit started to decrease several months earlier, hence it might serve as a stress indicator both at system and bank level.