بررسی مطالعه تلفیقی از جنبه های اجتماعی و اقتصادی

A fusion research project was evaluated from the aspects of socio-economics and its possible economic benefit. Research project itself has large economic impacts and it appears in a different way in different time. Four categories were identified as such mechanisms; direct economic effect by purchase and employment, the growth of local community and its economy, an improvement of technical capability of the industry stimulated by the development, and fusion energy supply under environmental constraints. Industrial effects were analysed from actual R&D program and found to yield considerable economic outcome, although contribution by the research itself is far smaller than that required for industry before actual commercial products can be produced. Economic value of fusion energy could be huge, but appears several decades future, and should be reduced by discount rate and success probability. Its value is more important as a part of environmental policy. Value of the fusion research at present age cannot be estimated as actual benefit, but as the effectiveness in the policy, or benefit for public that is now regarded as a kind of Externality.

Effects of the research and development of fusion energy, “Value for Money” are requested to be evaluated and explained by funding government and public. Justification of resources spent for fusion, in comparison with other energy developments, scientific research projects or, in some cases, with other technology projects or investment, must be evaluated for the cost effectiveness when budget from tax is allocated. Research projects, particularly those involving large-scale technology, R&D itself have large impacts on the society, that public usually expects as the result of the investment. Fig. 1 illustrates the different aspects of the impact of the fusion research. In the past, researchers have tended to consider the funding for research were given without asking the economical benefits to be returned to the public, and regarded only the academic knowledge and technical development as the measure of outcome as shown in Fig. 1(a). On the other hand, the final goal of this study is to measure the outcome of the fusion research from the actual social impact, regardless whether researchers intend it or not. Fig. 1(b) simplifies the social viewpoint for fusion research. The authors attempted to evaluate a fusion development project in Japan from various aspects of Fig. 1(b), socio-economic study of fusion for its impacts on economy, public and society. A major part of such impact occurs outside the market mechanism, and methodology developed for the evaluation of “Externality” was used. In the consideration of the impact of energy development, many other influence paths were taken into account. Previous works on the Externality analysed environmental effects of energy technology through the emission that is suspected to cause public health problem [1]. Such an environmental Externality of fusion was also analysed and reported to be very low [2]. However, the larger social impact of the fusion is anticipated to come from its direct sales in the future energy market [3]. On the other hand, the near-term effect of research activity is more important than the long-term effect of fusion energy, because from the viewpoint of taxpayers, budget allocation is compared with other public investments that are expected to show results much sooner. The present study, thus, intend to analyse how fusion research affects the public. If the fusion research is expected to yield large benefit, it will be regarded as worth funding.

The value of the fusion energy development was considered from various socio-economic aspects. It is widely understood that fusion could be a long-term energy solution. However, as a science and technology research and development, fusion can yield various effect and outcome at various times, to economy and public. It should be noted that the entire product of the R&D requires much larger additional investment for commercialization, and contribution of the fundamental research is relatively small. In the long-term, fusion may generate a huge market. However, its value that we can evaluate at this time is significantly reduced because of its remote benefit. Still it seems fusion research may be justified for its possible large-scale impact in the future market. When we see its present value, it is pointed out that research activity is an option of political investment to be prepared for some of the energy and environmental scenario that government and public would prefer. As an option of energy and environmental policy, fusion research appears an effective measure that can potentially yield large positive impact in a long term.