تکنولوژی بالقوه تبدیل گاز به مایع در بازار انرژی: مورد قطر

This paper presents a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the economic attractiveness of gas-to-liquid (GTL) technology in a gas rich country like Qatar. The Qatari gas volume needed to fully satisfy the projected long-term market demand of GTL products (mainly diesel oil) in the Asia-Pacific region is evaluated. Based on the state-of-the-art GTL technology, the number, size and the commissioning dates of GTL plants required for that purpose are determined along with the associated investment and running costs. The economic attractiveness of GTL investment is evaluated based on the internal rate of return, and the impact of adopting large-scale GTL projects on Qatar oil refining industry is assessed. Sensitivity analyses are conducted using several scenarios to account for variations in GTL premium, capital cost, operation and maintenance cost and cost of gas feedstock.

The gas-to-liquid (GTL) process is concerned with the conversion of natural gas (NG) into liquid fuels of excellent technical and environmental qualities which supersede those obtained from ordinary refinery products. Key GTL products include diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lube base-stocks and waxes, and petrochemicals such as naphtha and stream cracking. The products are of generally high quality with near zero sulfur and high cetane for the diesel (Rahmim, 2005). In recent years, several factors have resulted in the increased interest in GTL and its variations. These include (Ghaemmaghami, 2001, Rahmim, 2003 and Rahmim, 2005): • Stricter environmental regulations through tighter fuel specifications. • Need to develop additional energy resources. • Tendency to monetize flare gas and large reserves of stranded gas. • Diversification of supply. The US Department of Energy (DOE) (International Energy Outlook, 2005) suggests that GTL can only be economic if oil prices over the coming years are above US$20/B and gas is available at prices of the order of US$0.50/MMBtu. Recent forecasts suggest that oil prices may remain at US$40/B or higher, but the availability of gas feedstock at very low price is not straightforward. The important gas sources for GTL industry are likely to be those that are remote or stranded, flared or re-injected (Gas to Liquids Technology Worldwide, 2002). The GTL concept has been introduced by several authors who reported on the progress achieved and the potential of this emerging technology. In a comprehensive report (Rahmim, 2005), Rahmim compared GTL with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in terms of NG consumption. He concluded that the LNG and GTL facilities available worldwide consume only 0.12% of proven gas reserves and about 8% of global annual gas consumption. Rahmim reported that GTL is virtually sulfur free and primarily paraffinic and therefore it can be considered as an important blending element in satisfying environmental and auto emission requirements. Ogawa et al. (2000) analyzed the long-term forecast of oil demand in Asia and its characteristics, investigated the current trends of environmental measures being taken by Asian developing countries and studied the marketability of GTL and its needs. A GTL taskforce (GTL Task Force, 2001) prepared a GTL industry development discussion paper to promote Australian GTL industry. A life cycle assessment (LCA) study (Five Winds International, 2004) presented the environmental attributes of GTL fuel. The study compared GTL technologies to conventional refinery based technologies and provided a holistic view of the technologies’ impact on the environment by measuring the impacts caused by producing, transporting and using the fuels. The objective of this paper is to assess the potential of GTL industry in Qatar by addressing the following issues: • The extent to which Qatar's undeveloped gas reserves could support a world-scale GTL industry. • The potential market opportunities for Qatar GTL industry. • The impact of Qatar GTL industry on the oil refining industry.