وابستگی دولتی در تجربه بازار کار جوانان و ارزیابی مداخلات سیاست

We investigate the extent and type of state dependence in labor market outcomes for young low-skilled Australians. Our model allows for three labor force states, employment, unemployment and out of the labor force, and for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We find evidence of occurrence dependence, but no lagged duration dependence. A past employment spell increases the probability of employment in the future, but the length of the spell does not matter. A past spell of unemployment undoes the positive benefits from a spell in employment. Interpretations of these effects and implications for labor market policies are discussed.

This paper analyses the magnitude and form of state dependence in labour force outcomes for young low-skilled Australians. The presence of causal relationships between past labour market experiences and future outcomes has serious implications for the design of policies aimed at reducing youth unemployment. Existing program evaluations have concentrated on before-and-after comparisons, and longer term effects have been mostly ignored. There are still very few studies that characterize the form of state dependence across labor market states and these mostly deal with the “scarring” effects of unemployment. We look at general forms of state dependence across three labour force states: employment, unemployment and out of the labor force. Also contrary to most papers in the area, this study uses an event history framework. The resulting model is more general in the type of state dependence allowed and more precise in the measurement of the timing and duration of labour force spells. Results suggest that the form of state dependence is complex. For youths without post-secondary education, estimates suggest significant occurrence dependence, but no lagged duration dependence is found. Having experienced an employment spell in the past increases the probability of future employment, and similarly, unemployment spells raise the probability of future unemployment; however the duration of past spells does not matter. For example, simulations suggest that one additional spell of unemployment raises the future unemployment rate for this group by 13 to 16 percentage points. Also, the magnitude of the effects of past employment and unemployment spells is similar, which means that the beneficial effects of an employment spell can be easily undone if the spell is followed by unemployment. The presence of occurrence dependence suggests that keeping an attachment to the labor market is valuable in terms of future outcomes; young people who hold jobs can more easily find jobs in the future. This could be interpreted as benefits accruing from networking, or other skills in finding employment. Alternatively, employers could be more willing to hire people who have held previous jobs regardless, of the length of the employment spells. The lack of lagged duration dependence suggests that on-the-job human capital acquisition is limited, or that it is not transferable across employment experiences. Although men and women experience significant differences in some aspects of their labour market histories, the form and magnitude of state dependence are similar, and overall results apply to both groups. Preliminary results for youths with post-secondary education suggest different forms of state dependence for this group. There is evidence of lagged duration dependence; that is, the length of employment and unemployment spells matters in determining future outcomes. Overall, our results suggest that employment spells, even short ones, are beneficial for future employment probabilities and ignoring these effects can lead to an underestimation of labour market policies. Unfortunately, previous spells of unemployment are also important, and can easily undo the beneficial effects of job spells. Finally, the effects are complex, and flexible modelling of state dependence is needed to isolate and measure the causal relationships between past and future labour market experiences.

The finding of strong duration dependence in explaining the length of unemployment spells has influenced the design of many labour market policy reforms. However, very little work has been done on more complex effects of labour market experiences, and in particular on the causal effects of past outcomes involving other labour force states. In this paper, we use longitudinal data to investigate the extent and type of state dependence in labour market outcomes for young Australians with no post secondary education. The model uses transition data for young Australians with no post-secondary education, and incorporates observed and unobserved heterogeneity along with a flexible specification for the state dependence. The model includes parameters representing current duration dependence, previous occurrence dependence (recent spells and cumulative number over time), and cumulative lagged duration dependence. Furthermore, three distinct labor force states are considered (employment, unemployment, and out of the labor force), rather than the customary two states (employment and nonemployment). We find evidence of occurrence dependence, but not lagged duration dependence. People who stay active in the job market in the sense that they have employment experiences, have higher probabilities of finding a job in the future, regardless of the length of time spent in previous employment spells. The same is true for unemployment spells, and it is easy to undo the benefits of previous employment experiences with the addition of unemployment spells.