خورشید در شرق و آفریقا طلوع می کند : مقایسه توسعه و وضعیت بازارهای انرژی خورشیدی در کنیا و تانزانیا

This paper describes, compares and analyses the historical development and current status of Kenya's and Tanzania's emerging solar energy markets. The analysis is based on an extensive literature survey and 25 in-depth personal interviews with experts on the East African solar power market. Kenya's solar market is found to be one of the world's leading markets for off-grid solar uses, with a current installed capacity of over 10 MWp and more than 320,000 solar home systems. Having developed much later than the Kenyan market, Tanzania’s market still remains smaller than its neighbour’s, with an installed capacity of around 4 MWp and at least 40,000 solar home systems, but is in the process of catching up. In addition to solar home systems, other applications of solar energy technologies, such as in social institutions, telecoms and tourism, are covered. Major differences and similarities between the Kenyan and Tanzanian solar markets are identified and reasons for these are analysed. Initial policy implications regarding the regulation and promotion of solar energy in East Africa suggest that awareness, availability and affordability are major drivers that all need to be present to enable the widespread adoption of off-grid solar technologies in emerging markets.

Africa, probably more than any other continent, faces the double challenge of improving the living conditions of its population by dramatically increasing access to modern energy services, while simultaneously developing its energy sector in a way that is sustainable. The East African nations of Kenya and Tanzania are two examples of countries that face these challenges most acutely: Both countries have quickly-growing populations and rising prosperity that lead to increased energy demand. Yet, in both countries the electrification rates are among the lowest in the world, with 14% and 11% respectively in 2005 (IEA, 2006). At the same time, both Kenya and Tanzania continue to rely heavily on traditional biomass for most of their primary energy needs, while undergoing structural changes in power sectors that used to be dominated by clean and abundant hydro power as the primary source of electricity. The two countries therefore serve as good examples for economies that face the energy challenge and where solar energy, already exploited since the 1970s, might be part of the solution.1 This paper combines data and information from a broad range of sources to give an overview of the historical development and current status of the solar energy markets in Kenya and Tanzania. The paper is based on an extensive literature survey that takes account of academic as well as grey literature. The literature review has been complemented by 25 in-depth personal interviews with leading experts on the East African solar energy market that were conducted in September 2010. The paper provides an overview that focuses on two of the biggest economies in the region, which are also two of its biggest markets for solar energy applications. Given the current market structure, the paper focuses on the market for off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, but also makes reference to other solar energy applications.2 In addition to presenting an up-to-date overview of the solar energy markets in both countries, this paper serves a second purpose by analysing and explaining the observed differences and similarities between Kenya’s and Tanzania’s solar markets. Both the up-to-date overview and the comparative analysis fill major gaps in current knowledge. The aim of this paper is therefore to contribute to the body of scientific literature on the diffusion of solar energy technologies and to provide academics, industry participants and policy-makers with a useful reference work that should facilitate the formulation of renewable energy policies in East Africa and beyond. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Sections 2 and 3 present a concise overview of the development and current status of solar energy markets in Kenya and Tanzania, respectively. Section 4 describes major similarities and differences between both markets. Section 5 puts forward and analyses a number of possible explanations for the observed differences between Kenya and Tanzania. Finally, Section 6 provides a short summary and concludes with some policy implications that emerge from the previous analysis.

This paper analysed the development of solar energy markets in Kenya and Tanzania from the 1970s to 2010. While both markets started to emerge some 40 years ago, they developed quite differently during the first 30 years of their existence and only recently began to converge. Kenya’s solar market, on the one hand, started to grow strongly in the 1980s, which was largely due to the emergence of a major SHS segment alongside procurement by the government and donors. By 2009, the market had grown to an estimated 8–10 MWp, approximately three-quarters of which were installed in SHS. These SHS, which numbered around 320,000 in 2010, were largely acquired by middle-class households in rural areas for the production of off-grid electricity for their TVs, radios, lights and mobile phones. The remainder of the Kenyan market was largely in off-grid social institutions, with solar energy additionally being used in the communications and tourism sectors. Other forms of PV use, such as in mini-grids and on-grid electricity generation, are emerging only now. In addition, solar energy is increasingly being used in SWH, whose number was estimated at 55,000–70,000 in 2009. The major distinguishing feature of Kenya’s solar market in comparison to Tanzania’s is that it emerged largely without government intervention. Since its early days, the Kenyan market was mostly driven by consumer demand for SHS and the development of an industry that caters to the needs of Kenya’s rural households. Tanzania’s solar market, on the other hand, developed much more slowly and was for a longer time more dependent on government and donor support. The country’s SHS market emerged only in the late 1990s and early 2000s, largely through a spill-over from Kenya and active market development programmes from foreign donors and the Tanzanian government. By 2009, the overall installed capacity reached an estimated 3–4 MWp, with around 2 MWp installed in SHS and the remainder in institutional systems as well as a few other applications. The number of SHS was estimated at 40,000 systems in 2008, while an estimated 1000–3000 SWH were installed by 2010. Compared to Kenya, the Tanzanian government and its development partners invested relatively large amounts in the development of the country’s solar market, yet its industry remains much less advanced than that of its northern neighbour. Nonetheless, several major development programmes as well as purchases of institutional systems have been instrumental for the Tanzanian market to reach its current size and to span the entire country. Going forward, it seems likely that the Tanzanian solar market will be converging in many ways with the Kenyan market, as it grows especially strongly in the segments of institutional and home systems. Some major differences have been observed between the solar markets of both East African nations, despite apparent similarities in the conditions for their emergence and later development. These differences can firstly be found in the way the markets developed over the past decades and, secondly, how they are structured today. Thirdly, the markets differ in the role that SHS have played in their development and how this segment emerged, as well as, fourthly, the shape and size of their solar industries and the importance of and outlook for different solar applications. A number of possible explanations for these differences in the development of markets in Kenya and Tanzania emerged from the comparative analysis of the respective development paths as well as the expert interviews that were conducted. These reasons can be grouped under four headings: geographic, socio-economic, political/structural and other. More specifically, major reasons that seem likely to explain much of the differences in the emergence of solar energy markets in Kenya and Tanzania can be found in the different economic systems of these countries, different settlement patterns, the purchasing power of rural populations and the awareness among potential users of solar power systems. In light of these observations, it can be concluded that the Kenyan market could serve as an example for similar efforts of technology diffusion in other countries and for other technologies, as it demonstrates how a viable consumer market can emerge through private-sector innovation and with relatively little government involvement. In order to identify the reasons for the differences in the development of Kenya’s and Tanzania’s solar markets, this paper was based on a qualitative analysis of the relevant literature and expert interviews. In the future, this qualitative analysis should be complemented with quantitative approaches once sufficient quantitative data becomes available.9 The results of the qualitative analysis conducted here can serve as a useful starting point for such future quantitative research. Furthermore, they already allow the formulation of some initial hypotheses regarding the enablers and obstacles for the development of solar energy markets in general and lead to some important policy implications for the support of renewable energy markets globally. However, transferring the experiences of Kenya or Tanzania to other markets demands some additional work, as country-specific obstacles need to be addressed before any market can establish itself. The Tanzanian experience, especially, shows that targeted programmes by the government or other actors may be in order if the establishment of such a renewable energy market becomes an official policy goal. Meanwhile, such programmes will need to achieve at least three things, as the lessons from both countries show: Raising awareness among consumers and other customer groups about the technologies and their applications, increasing the availability of solar power systems via market development, and ensuring the affordability of solar energy technologies for their intended users. 10 As suggested by this paper, there appears to exist a virtuous circle between the increasing dissemination of solar PV systems and subsequent increases in awareness (through word of mouth) among consumers. This suggests that awareness building (e.g. through demonstration projects, awareness campaigns or direct subsidies for early adopters) will be most crucial during the early stages of market development, when campaigns to build awareness by the government, donors and civil society will have the largest impact. When considering increasing the availability of solar energy technologies, governments, donors and NGOs should undertake a thorough analysis of existing obstacles and tailor their strategies accordingly. The experience of Tanzania and Kenya suggests that this might involve dealing with structural and historical factors (e.g. a poorly developed entrepreneurial culture) as well as inadequate infrastructure and many other possible constraints all at once. Moreover, Kenya’s experience highlights the need to consider demand-side factors when developing policy to support market development. Demand for electricity to power TV sets played an important role in solar PV market development in that country (cf. Section 5.4). In the absence of such consumer demand, the market would not have grown regardless of policy interventions. Market development is also closely linked to solar system affordability. Affordability is influenced by factors such as purchasing power, prices, and availability and terms of credit. Purchasing power, in turn, is linked to general economic development and the distribution of wealth within a country. Technological advances and other market dynamics influence prices over time, and there is evidence that prices for many solar system components are falling at the global scale. Private sector actors and policy-makers alike can play a role in supporting the creation of accessible credit schemes. Governments can also contribute to affordability by taking measures to ensure the efficient functioning of their solar market and by devising enabling regulation and tax policies. In this context, this paper has illustrated the interdependence of these three factors, as well as their wider interactions with some other external factors that will have an impact on the successful development of solar energy markets. As is evident from the comparative analysis of Kenya and Tanzania, these market-specific and external factors and their interactions need to be taken into account when attempting to “build” markets from scratch. Finally, the analysis of the past development of solar energy markets in Kenya and Tanzania suggests that government policies will be crucial for the direction that the development of these markets takes in the future. Whereas Kenya’s largest market segment has mostly developed without active government involvement, almost the entire solar market of Tanzania was the creation of an active government, its development partners and the NGO community. This suggests that decisions by all of these actors will shape the future of markets in Kenya and Tanzania. Therefore, the direction of both markets could diverge significantly in the coming years, as Kenya’s government looks set to promote new uses of solar energy much more vigorously than Tanzania’s, especially in the fields of SWH and on-grid solar PV. At the same time, the effectiveness of the rural electrification and procurement programmes for institutional PV systems will determine the future of today’s biggest market segments in Kenya, while the market in Tanzania looks likely to follow recent trends with further growth in the markets for SHS and institutional systems with only half-hearted efforts at establishing new solar applications.