انرژی، جامعه و علم: سناریوی پنجاه ساله

A vibrant, interactive, and rapidly advancing global society needs an adequate, low cost, predictable and diverse supply of energy; a stable climate; and an international market for energy that mediates across countries, regions, and energy carriers. The science discoveries needed to achieve these energy and societal outcomes are analyzed.

The next fifty years will witness historic transitions in energy and society. Sustainable energy technologies such as wind, solar, biofuels, carbon sequestration, and electric vehicles are growing in our energy profile [1]. The old paradigm of a few technologically and economically advanced countries dominating the global stage is giving way to the growing aspirations and greater participation of developing countries in world affairs, driven by their desire to secure the societal benefits of economic growth and advanced technology. Increased globalization driven by widespread education, communication, trade, and exchange of people and ideas provides the means for developing countries to achieve their economic and technological aspirations. It is increasingly recognized that a high standard of living is a dynamic benefit: continuous and significant advances in science, technology, innovation, and competitiveness are critical to achieving and maintaining a high quality of life.

A major theme of this article is the critical role of today's energy decisions in determining the kind of global society we will realize in fifty years. An adequate, inexpensive and sustainable supply of energy, reliable and predictable access to that supply, a stable climate, and a transparent international energy market mediating across countries, regions and energy carriers are top energy priorities for a vibrant, interactive and rapidly advancing global society. Because discretionary resources available for developing new energy technologies are limited, energy outcomes that promote these basic societal goals must be deliberately identified, prioritized and strategically pursued. The energy outcomes presented here are chosen first for their essential contribution to a vibrant, interactive and rapidly advancing society, and second for their scientific and technical achievability over a fifty-year time scale (Fig. 9). The outcomes include two technologies (wind and solar electricity) already on the road but in need of further discovery in materials and chemistry to achieve widespread penetration, two that are on the road but need significant discovery to become more sustainable (nuclear electricity and shale gas), and three that are not yet on the road and need substantial discovery in materials and chemistry to be ready for development into technologies capable of reaching competitive status (mineralization of carbon emissions, electricity storage beyond lithium ion batteries, and recycling carbon dioxide and water to create a sustainable chemical energy carrier). A transparent and orderly international market in energy mediating among countries, regions and energy carriers requires not only economic, social and political structures but also discovery science and technology to enable facile conversion of energy from one carrier to another. This interchangeability among energy carriers would fully commoditize energy and increase the flexibility, reliability and predictability of the energy access chain. Discovery science and follow-up learning about new materials and chemistry is a factor of ten less expensive than the applied development and demonstration of new technologies based on these discoveries, and a factor of one hundred less expensive than commercial deployment of new energy technologies. Discovery science is an especially important societal investment for its relatively low cost, its stimulation of innovation, its identification of false starts before expensive development directions are launched, its payback of much more than its cost in economic growth, and its priming of the innovation ecosystem. Unlike increased regulation alone, discovery science addresses threats to human and environmental health while simultaneously lowering cost and increasing performance of energy technologies. In good and bad economic times, discovery science is high priority for its enduring value in promoting a vibrant, interactive and rapidly advancing society.