حامل های شبکه اتحادیه اروپا ، حامل های کم هزینه و رفتار مصرف کننده : مطالعه دلفی از روند آینده

This paper uses a Delphi panel of 26 air transport experts to forecast the structure of air transport in the EU in 2015 in respect of network carriers, low cost airlines and passenger behaviour. Secondary research was used to construct a number of scenarios about the future structure and strategy of EU network and low cost airlines and also traveller behaviour. Consensus of opinions was sought amongst the panel in a two-round process. The consensus opinion of the Delphi experts was that; network carrier consolidation will reduce EU players to less than five, there will be only two or three large low cost carriers, Business Class products will disappear on short hauls, and leisure travellers will take an increasing number of multiple short-duration holidays.

The purpose of this study is to identify future trends in the European air transport sector over 10–15 years. While a full European Commission (2005) study covered many aspects of Aviation in the EU, here we focus on EU network and low cost carriers (LCCs) and also changes in consumer demand for air transport. The paper uses published literature to examine and establish the current position with respect of network and LCCs and consumer demand. This analysis is then used to develop possible future market scenarios. The likelihood of these scenarios coming into reality was then examined using a two stage Delphi survey of aviation experts.

The purpose of this study was to assess the elements affecting the market structure and financial viability of European air transport over the next 10–15 years. A Delphi study approach was a suitable method drawing together the views of industry experts to assess veracity of hypotheses about how network carriers, LCCs and airline customers in the forecast time frame. The results of the Delphi experts suggest that business travellers will increasingly seek better value for money leading to the end of business class services in short-haul markets and leisure travellers taking advantage of low fares to vacation more frequently both in the EU and further abroad. The airline market is likely to consolidate into a small number of very large network carriers and a similarly small number of very large LCCs. The surviving LCCs will prosper and eventually carry about half of intra-EU traffic. Feeder services into main hub airports will increasingly be operated by lower cost-based franchised partner airlines. There will continue to be an independent role for the small and medium sized European carries, by focusing on point-to-point markets, and feeding traffic to larger network airlines. High-speed rail could also provide feed into hubs where the infrastructure allows that, but elsewhere is likely to compete with short-haul air services. Competition for network carriers will continue to be intense on major long-haul markets. Services to Gulf and beyond will become increasingly vulnerable to competition from Gulf area airlines due to their large expansion in capacity.