مدل سازی نفوذ بازار از لوازم انرژی کارآمد انرژی در بخش مسکونی

The aim of this research is to model the market penetration of energy efficient appliances in the residential sector. The analysis focuses on six major appliances – refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, and ranges – to forecast their market penetration and market share during the years 2012–2050. Models were developed for each category using 22 years of historical data related to population, household income, immigration, and appliance price. These variables were selected based on the statistical tests of twelve macroeconomic variables. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were analyzed based on the related capital costs, operating costs, lifetime, and incentive. The results show that in Alberta the market penetration growth rate of dishwashers is higher than that of all other appliances, with a projected 30.52% increase between 2012 and 2050. The modeling results also indicate that the average annual energy consumption by refrigerators will decrease from 560.9 kWh in 2012 to 460.8 kWh in 2050, and this decrease indicates an annual energy efficiency improvement of 0.47%. In addition, the effect of an incentive on adopting high energy efficiency appliances and ultimately on energy efficiency improvement in Alberta is more effective for dishwashers and clothes washers.