تقسیم اثرات جمعیتی بر سیستم بازنشستگی آلمانی

The paper analyses the impact of demographic developments on the German pension system until the year 2060. The projections are simulated for a range of assumptions on the latest demographic trends and on the labour market and comprise the latest pension legislation. As a central innovation, we present a decomposition approach which allows identifying the isolated effects of mortality, fertility and migration developments on the dynamics of the German pension system. We show that the past population structure – driven by past fertility changes – and future mortality improvements will be the most important factors shaping the development of the German pension system. The results have a number of implications for effective and sustainable pension reforms.