پیامدهای اصلاحات یارانه انرژی در هند

This paper analyses welfare impact of energy subsidy reform in India based on the data from 1970‐ 71 to 2014‐ 15. To this end, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) have been estimated to quantify the short-run and long-run price and the income elasticity of various energy products. The results show that the price elasticity of demand for all fossil fuels is low, but the respective income elasticity is higher. Therefore, an increase in the general price level caused by the subsidy reform will lead to the erosion of real income and will have related welfare implications in India. The results also reveal that energy expenditure will obviously increase and hence energy consumption will decline depending upon the extent of the withdrawal of subsidy. Therefore, policy makers in India, while undertaking further reforms, must ensure that the subsidy reaches to those who truly deserve, so that the socioeconomic casualty of reforms can be minimized along with achieving fiscal goals.