دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 13223
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

معامله گران محافظه کار، انتخاب طبیعی و کارایی بازار

عنوان انگلیسی
Conservative traders, natural selection and market efficiency
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
13223 2012 26 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 147, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 310–335

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
معامله گران محافظه کار - تکامل - بازماندگان - عقلانیت بازار - انتخاب طبیعی - بازده بازار -
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Conservative traders, Evolution, Survivor, Market rationality, Natural selection, Market efficiency,
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  معامله گران محافظه کار، انتخاب طبیعی و کارایی بازار

This paper examines the impact of conservative traders on market efficiency in an evolutionary model of a commodity futures market. This paper shows that the long-run market outcome is informationally efficient, as long as in every period there is a positive probability that entering traders are more conservative than their predecessors. Conservative traders are those who correctly predict the spot price with a positive probability, and more importantly, who in their mistakes err on the side of caution, and rarely overpredict the spot price as buyers, and underpredict the spot price as sellers. This result does not require entry of traders with better information than their predecessors.