بررسی ظرفیت تولید نفت خام و صادرات کشورهای خاورمیانه عضو اوپک

As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products.

Crude oil consumption, particularly the relatively inexpensive conventional oil, is linked closely to the wealth of industrialized countries as well as the dramatic economic expansion of emerging economies. Many of the fast growing economies have relatively few crude oil resources of their own while most of the remaining crude oil resources are geographically concentrated in a few countries around the world. By way of an example, Table 1 shows the gap between demand centers and production centers as well as the geographic concentration of the crude oil resources. Table 1. GDP and crude oil reserves in the top 10 GDP and crude oil reserves countries in 2009. Top 10 GDP countries GDP (trillion$) Reserves (billion bbl) Top 10 reserves countries Reserves (billion bbl) GDP (trillion$) United States 14.05 28.4 Saudi Arabia 262.4 0.37 Japan 5.03 0.04 Iran 137.0 0.33 China 4.99 14.8 Iraq 115.0 0.07 Germany 3.30 0.3 Kuwait 104.0 0.11 France 2.62 0.1 UAE 97.8 0.27 United Kingdom 2.17 5.7 Russia 76.7 1.22 Italy 2.11 0.9 Libya 44.3 0.06 Brazil 1.59 18.0 Venezuela 41.2 0.33 Spain 1.46 0.1 Kazakhstan 39.8 0.12 India 1.38 5.8 Nigeria 37.2 0.17 ⁎Data sources: World Bank (2012) for GDP; BGR (2009) for crude oil reserves. Table options Because of the critical importance of crude oil to modern economic activity, it is important to try to estimate plausible trajectories of future country-specific crude oil production and export capacities while accounting for below and above ground uncertainties that might limit the export capacity of the major world crude oil players. For example, Hallock et al. (2004) and Voudouris et al. (2011) argue that the world is going to be increasingly dependent on fewer and fewer crude oil exporters located mostly in the Middle East and nearby regions. Here we explore the export capacity of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member countries in the Middle East, namely Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar. These countries are critically important crude oil producers and exporters, because these countries occupy about one third of the world crude oil production (and more than 90% of the Middle East) in 2010 (EIA, 2011) and IEA (2010) places the onus of increased oil supplies on the six major national oil companies in these countries (Stevens, 2012). Besides, five of these countries are in the five highest crude oil reserves countries as shown in Table 1 and Qatar is in the 12th (25.4 billion bbl). Collectively, the six countries analyzed here hold more than 60% of the world crude oil proved reserves and 99% of the proved reserves in the Middle East (BGR, 2009). In addition to the high geographic concentration of crude oil reserves, the OPEC Middle East countries produce and export crude oil to the rest of the world. Fig. 1 shows that these countries play important roles as the sources of fueling the world economy for several decades. The OPEC Middle East provided around 40% of the world net export in this period with Saudi Arabia a dominant player by far. Stevens (2012) argues that the main Gulf Cooperation Council exporters (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE) have sufficient capacity to cover the loss of exports from all the other Arab exporting countries. As shown in Fig. 2, the OPEC Middle East countries are consistently producing more crude oil compared with their domestic demand for crude oil. It is important to note that some other countries such as Russia, Canada, and Venezuela are also important oil producers and potentially influential crude oil exporters. However, we focus on the six OPEC Middle East countries as we consider that these countries will be the key players in the world crude oil export markets at least until ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil enhance their market shares and extraction rates. Full-size image (37 K) Fig. 1. Net export (export minus import) of crude oil for the period 1986–2009 (Data source: EIA, 2011). Figure options Full-size image (27 K) Fig. 2. Production versus consumption for the period 1986–2009. The dashed line indicates the balance between production and consumption . Data source: EIA, 2011. Figure options Based on these circumstances, it is anticipated that these six OPEC Middle East countries are likely to play an increasingly dominant role in the world oil export markets as we move forward and their behavior and plausible export capacity will have a significant impact in the world oil markets. Although there are several studies using a variety of modeling approaches (economic, physical, and statistical) to explore the future production of crude oil based on the concept of representative agent (e.g. Al-Jarri and Startzman, 1997, Bartlett, 2000 and Campbell, 1997; Campbell and Heapes, 2008; Caithamer, 2008, Deffeyes, 2002, Duncan and Youngquist, 1999, Hallock et al., 2004, Kaufmann, 1991, Laherrere, 2006, Mohr and Evans, 2007, Mohr and Evans, 2008, Mohr and Evans, 2009, Nashawi et al., 2010, Wells, 2005 and Wood et al., 2003), there are few studies analyzing the export capacity of crude oil and no studies doing that for all of individual countries. This is because they focus on assessing the future production of crude oil and little consider the demand. Hallock et al. (2004) is one comprehensive study evaluating production, demand, and export of the 47 major oil-producing counties based on the representative agent modeling. In this study, we use the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model (first proposed by Voudouris, 2011 and demonstrated by Voudouris et al., 2011) to explore the future (until 2050) export and production potential of crude oil of the six OPEC Middle East countries by explicitly modeling the crude oil demand and supply for 216 countries. Crude oil in this study primarily includes crude oil and lease condensate as defined by Energy Information Administration (EIA) (see also Section 2.2 below). As discussed by Voudouris et al. (2011), the key advantage of the ACEGES model is the high degree of heterogeneity that can be incorporated in the scenarios in order to quantify the uncertainties within each scenario (in addition to the wide range of uncertainties that can be explored by developing fundamentally different scenarios—internally coherent and plausible narratives about the future). Section 2 outlines the ACEGES model, particularly the decision rule of the agents (countries). Because the ACEGES model is a realistically-rendered agent-based model, it also discusses how the model is initialized with observational data and how heterogeneity is introduced in the model. This section also discusses the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) framework developed by Rigby and Stasinopoulos (2005) as a method of analyzing and summarizing the simulated scenarios. Section 3 presents the results of the analysis. Section 4 concludes this study.

We recognize that it is nearly impossible to predict the exact future evolution of country-specific crude oil export capacity. However, we consider it is realistic to provide plausible scenarios based on the information available today. The information used in designing scenarios should be based on the history and current forces in the pipeline. Such scenarios should not be based on wishful thinking, but alternative options should be explored by means of controlled computational experiments. It was demonstrated that the ACEGES model offers a new and novel way for exploring plausible futures of the country-specific dynamics for crude oil production and export capacity. We have also applied a statistical technique, the GAMLSS framework, as a way of analyzing and summarizing the ACEGES-based scenario. The ACEGES model can simulate a large number of combinations of scenarios by adjusting any of the most important and uncertain driving forces of the scenarios. We here presented results of crude oil production and export of the six OPEC Middle East countries, which had so far played significant roles and were expected to keep playing significant roles in the world crude oil markets. These simulated results were analyzed using the GAMLSS framework by selecting the SHASH distribution (with calibration for each country). Given the Collective View Scenario, the results indicate that the peak year of crude oil production of the OPEC Middle East countries might happen between 2018 and 2033 for the 50% centile curve. The peak year of the export capacity of crude oil of these countries might happen between 2010 and 2032 for the 50% centile curve. Furthermore, we cannot reject the claim that the OPEC Middle East countries will necessarily manage to avoid a gap between world crude oil demand and supply. An oil crash would put additional pressure on developing extra-heavy oil, ultra-deep-water oil, and oil sands. In our view, all of the trajectories are plausible portrayals of the future of crude oil production and export given the combinations of the uncertainties. Therefore, we provide the range of the future situations considering possible uncertainties rather than a point forecast. Our purpose of a series of studies using the ACEGES model is to provide a computational model that can be used as a research and planning method for long-term energy planning and investment processes by policy makers and industries. Therefore, we should consider not only crude oil but also expensive oil resources in the model for the future study.